结构性去杠杆下的中国宏观经济*——2018年中期中国宏观经济分析与预测

2018年以来中国经济平稳运行，物价水平稳定，就业形势整体向好，经济增长质量稳步提升。不过，当前中国经济仍然面临一定的下行压力，尤其需要警惕消费增速过快下滑、宏观税负进一步加重、民间投资复苏乏力、部分企业效益状况显著恶化、去杠杆过程中金融体系不稳定性加剧等主要风险点。此外，杠杆率高企是现阶段中国经济面临的突出问题，而且中国的杠杆率在不同部门之间以及各部门内部均体现出明显的结构性特点。为此，中央在2018年专门提出了“结构性去杠杆”的新思路。在“结构性去杠杆”稳步推进的大背景下，宏观政策既要积极应对经济下行压力，谨防去杠杆带来的经济增速超预期下滑风险，又要激发经济内生增长动力，促使经济实现长期可持续发展和“高质量发展”。     

水利风景区管理效能评估及影响因素识别——基于181个国家级水利风景区样本

基于管理规范、管理执行、管理支持和管理效益4个方面的指标构建,对中国181个国家水利风景区进行问卷调查,以评价水利风景区的管理效能。结果表明:181个水利风景区管理效能平均得分为58.4分,得分低于60分的水利风景区占54.7%,说明我国水利风景区的管理效能总体偏低;水利风景区管理效能与景区类型、批准设立时间、地域分布、所在地区域经济发展水平、主要功能、管理机构独立性差异显著,与面积大小和经营性质之间差异不显著。从分类指标看,管理效果类指标得分最低,从全部指标看,土地权属、游客控制、餐住布局、管理条例、环境保护考核、生态厕所、居民参与、资源调查、保护经费、环境保护宣传、环境保护培训、经营情况等10个指标得分低于平均分。建议破除管理体制障碍,实行分类管理,试点跨流域、市场化、多功能间生态补偿制度,实行特许经营制度,加强自然保护地监督管理,完善自然保护地制度体系。     

The role of relationship quality in raising organizational change acceptance: The case of the Greek hotel industry

This study examines whether the quality of an employee's relationships, within the context of the hotel industry, has an influence on their behavioral intention towards organizational change. The researchers suggest that the quality of relationships is an important element of an individual's social capital and can be evaluated using five key dimensions: the extent to which relationships are tangible, responsive and reliable, as well as the extent to which they offer empathy and assurance. Furthermore, this research examines whether organizational commitment and job satisfaction have an effect on the association between relationship quality and an individual's behavioral intention towards organizational change. The data collected from a sample of 100 hotel employees in Thessaloniki, Greece, show that relationship quality has a positive association with an individual's behavioral intention towards change. Additional results highlight the roles of job satisfaction and organizational commitment as mediating variables. Managerial implications relevant to the findings and pathways for further research are also discussed.     

STOCK‐BOND CO‐MOVEMENTS AND FLIGHT‐TO‐QUALITY IN G7 COUNTRIES: A TIME‐FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

This paper examines co‐movement between stock returns and changes in 10‐year government bond yields as well as flight‐to‐quality behaviour in G7 countries. We conduct the wavelet squared coherence analysis to explore the dynamics in both time and frequency domain. Our results provide evidence of positive co‐movements, which vary over time and across investment horizon. The higher co‐movement is found to be more concentrated in the lower frequency bands. We further analyse the dynamic nature of the scale‐dependent wavelet correlations and find that the correlations are highly volatile and significantly increase across different time scales during the episodes of equity market turbulence. The increase in correlations reflects flights from stocks to safer bond investments as a result of dramatic changes in investor sentiment and risk aversion at times of market stress.     

Corruption,market quality,and entry deterrence in emerging economies

In many emerging economies incumbent firms often use dubious means to deter entry of other firms. We analyze this scenario in a three‐stage game of entry deterrence. The incumbent has incomplete information about the entrant's costs but can increase this cost by resorting to unfair means (e.g. bribing a politician who harms the entrant). We completely characterize the optimal bribe and show that this depends on the “fairness index” and the “differentiation” parameter. We also show that zero bribes need not maximize welfare and market quality. Our results seem to be compatible with anecdotal evidence from emerging economies such as India.     

Unraveling the dynamic and contingency mechanism between service experience and customer engagement with luxury hotel brands

This study unravels the dynamic and contingency mechanism between service experience and customer engagement with luxury hotel brands by investigating a multi-step model linking these two variables, in which emotional attachment and relational quality constructs (i.e., brand satisfaction, brand trust, and brand commitment) act as a bridge, while customer involvement acts as a moderator. Based on a self-administered survey dataset of 249 international tourists who are customers of luxury hotel brands, partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) is used to test the hypotheses. The results indicate that all proposed hypotheses are supported. As such, this study discovers and clarifies the nature and dynamic mechanism underpinning the co-creation and reciprocation process of customer engagement with luxury hotels. In particular, the positive service experience is found to contribute to customer engagement via emotional attachment and relational marketing. Furthermore, the moderating role of customer involvement in the luxury hotel setting is confirmed.     

复杂地质条件下高面板堆石坝工程质量控制措施阐述

在复杂地质条件下,需要加强高面板堆石坝工程质量管控工作,严格地按照国家出台的质量安全责任规章,提高建设质量。论文主要围绕高面板堆石坝工程、工程质量控制措施两个方面进行探讨,确保混凝土面板堆石坝的施工质量。     

环境检测报告质量的提升策略分析

环境检测工作对于环境保护具有重要影响,这要求全社会稳步提升对于环境检测工作的认识水平,积极地参与相关工作实践,为环境保护提供可靠的参考依据。论文重点分析了环境检测报告质量的提升策略,结合提升环境检测报告质量的意义,提出对应的方案,以期推动环境检测报告的质量提升至新的高度。     

Elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency: evidence from the US electricity generation

ABSTRACT

The implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution. This study uses state level data to examine fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) substitution in electricity generation under increased availability of natural gas in the United States. We observe that changes in elasticities of substitution from pre-2009 to post-2009 differ across states suggesting that the effects of increased availability of inexpensive natural gas on electricity generation have been spatially heterogeneous. We rely on the observed heterogeneity to assess the effects of fossil fuel input substitution on technical efficiency and CO₂ emissions. The results reveal that state level elasticity of substitution between natural gas and coal has a positive effect on technical efficiency and a negative effect on CO₂ emissions. Therefore, future policy design and analyses should reflect the implications for regional elasticities of fossil fuel substitution and associated environmental outcomes.     

Is external research assessment associated with convergence or divergence of research quality across universities and disciplines? Evidence from the PBRF process in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Performance-based research evaluations have been adopted in several countries both to measure research quality in higher education institutions and as a basis for the allocation of funding across institutions. Much attention has been given to evaluating whether such schemes have increased the quality and quantity of research. This paper examines whether the introduction of the New Zealand Performance-Based Research Fund process produced convergence or divergence in measured research quality across universities and disciplines between the 2003 and 2012 assessments. Two convergence measures are obtained. One, referred to as β-convergence, relates to the relationship between changes in average quality and the initial quality level. The second concept, referred to as σ-convergence, relates to the changes in the dispersion in average research quality over time. Average quality scores by discipline and university were obtained from individual researcher data, revealing substantial β- and σ-convergence in research quality over the period. The hypothesis of uniform rates of convergence across almost all universities and disciplines is supported. The results provide insights into the incentives created by performance-based funding schemes.